How is the real estate market doing in Glendale? In a word- FANTASTIC.
If you are a home seller. It’s a bit stressful for home buyers.
Inventory levels are still very low, but stable, for the last six months. Closed sales have an overall trend that is also very stable. Pending sales, however, have been rising since December.
Expressed another way, the months supply of inventory has been solidly in favor of the home seller all year long. (Months supply of inventory: “How long will it take to sell all the homes currently on the market?”. If there is less than 4 months of inventory it is a seller’s market. )
Translation: The buyers really want to buy and there are very few homes for them to buy. Every listing that is decently priced and reasonably presented seems to get multiple offers.
Days on Market
The first quarter saw days on market rise sharply from 70 days to 92 days in March. In the second quarter, however, days on market dropped dramatically, down to 60-ish days on market.
Translation: By March all of the stale inventory from the winter months had either sold or given up. Fresh inventory starting selling very quickly and those numbers are reflected in April’s numbers. In general homes are selling quickly in Glendale.
Short Sales and Foreclosures
Short sales dropped- earlier they were 24% of total sales, this quarter they make up just 16% of sales. Foreclosure sales are fairly stable.
Translation: I think HOPE has much to do with both the drop in inventory as well as the drop in short sales. Positive indicators are everywhere- the government wants people to get loan modifications, the media makes much of small indicators of economic recovery and everywhere you turn are dramatic stories of multiple offer bidding on homes. People feel that they might be able to avoid selling their home short or selling for today’s current prices.
So- what does all of this mean for the prices of homes in Glendale? They appear to be going up- if only just slightly.
The first indicator is the overall average sales price has risen, steadily from March ($566,000) to June ($644,000). However, this is largely due to a larger number of mid to high priced homes selling rather than an overall increase in value.
I think the more important indicator of general price is the average price per square foot. The first quarter saw a price DROP from $316 to $297. However, the second quarter quickly rose above those numbers to end at $327.
Translation: There are a larger number of mid to high priced homes selling, this quarter and the rise in average price per square foot indicates a rising trend in overall prices, as well.
Shadow Inventory describes the number of homes in some sort of distress, from late payments all the way to foreclosure, but are not available for sale right now. This inventory has greatly affected the normal supply/demand market dynamics in the recent past.
The good news is that Shadow Inventory has a lessor effect in today’s market. Buyers are eager to take advantage of ridiculously low interest rates and investors are scooping up anything below $450,000. A reasonable homeowner might be tempted to wait for prices to rise even further.
However, the Shadow Inventory is as large as ever. We haven’t fixed our problem- we are just ignoring it. Will this inventory come back to bite us at a later date?
Anyone who says they have the answer is subject to suspicion. Predicting the future is always a dicey proposition.
We know that today is good. Is it the right time for you to sell your home?